Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Slovácko W vs Dukla Praha W — 1. Liga Women 2020

Slovácko W
Slovácko W
FT
4 – 0
Dukla Praha W
Dukla Praha W
8/13/20211. Liga Women1. Liga Women · Round 1Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Slovácko W75%
×Draw15%
Dukla Praha W11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovácko W
2.88
Dukla Praha W
1.03

Slovácko W creates 180% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

creates per match

Slovácko W
2.03
Dukla Praha W
0.53

allows per match

Slovácko W
1.53
Dukla Praha W
3.73

finishing

Slovácko W+0.00on par
Dukla Praha W+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovácko W ↓

Dukla Praha W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Slovácko W or draw
89%
Slovácko W or Dukla Praha W
85%
Draw or Dukla Praha W
25%

Winning margin

Slovácko W wins by 2+
54%
Dukla Praha W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Slovácko W 1+ goals
94%
Slovácko W 2+ goals
78%
Slovácko W 3+ goals
54%
Dukla Praha W 1+ goals
64%
Dukla Praha W 2+ goals
28%
Dukla Praha W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Slovácko W (draw refunded)
87%
Dukla Praha W (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovácko W at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

Dukla Praha W away — creates 0.53, concedes 3.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovácko W attack 2.03 + Dukla Praha W defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 2.88

Dukla Praha W attack 0.53 + Slovácko W defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Slovácko W scores more
75%
level
15%
Dukla Praha W scores more
11%

Slovácko W at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Slovácko W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Women: Slovácko W 4–0 Dukla Praha W

Slovácko W beat Dukla Praha W 4-0 in 1. Liga Women on August 13, 2021.

The match was played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty in Uherské Hradiště.