Dukla Praha W 2–4 Slovácko W: Result & Stats

Dukla Praha W

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Slovácko W

3/26/2023

1. Liga Women · Round 14UMT Juliska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dukla Praha W22%

×Draw19%

Slovácko W59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dukla Praha WExpected goals in this matchSlovácko W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

2.50

Dukla Praha W

1.48

Slovácko W

2.50

Slovácko W creates 69% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

1.40

creates per match

1.90

3.10

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Dukla Praha W

1.40

Slovácko W

1.90

allows per match

Dukla Praha W

3.10

Slovácko W

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dukla Praha W+0.00on par

Slovácko W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Praha W ↓

Slovácko W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Dukla Praha W or draw

41%

Dukla Praha W or Slovácko W

81%

Draw or Slovácko W

78%

Winning margin

Dukla Praha W wins by 2+

10%

Slovácko W wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Dukla Praha W 1+ goals

77%

Dukla Praha W 2+ goals

43%

Dukla Praha W 3+ goals

19%

Slovácko W 1+ goals

92%

Slovácko W 2+ goals

71%

Slovácko W 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Dukla Praha W (draw refunded)

27%

Slovácko W (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Praha W at home — creates 1.40, concedes 3.10 · 30 matches

Slovácko W away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.57 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Praha W attack 1.40 + Slovácko W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Slovácko W attack 1.90 + Dukla Praha W defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Dukla Praha W scores more

22%

level

19%

Slovácko W scores more

59%

Slovácko W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Slovácko W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff