Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Slovácko II vs Odra Petřkovice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Slovácko II
Slovácko II
CANC
08:15
Odra Petřkovice
Odra Petřkovice
3/28/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 13Stadion Na Bělince

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Slovácko II35%
×Draw24%
Odra Petřkovice40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovácko II
1.44
Odra Petřkovice
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 12 away

creates per match

Slovácko II
1.79
Odra Petřkovice
1.83

allows per match

Slovácko II
1.28
Odra Petřkovice
1.08

finishing

Slovácko II+0.00on par
Odra Petřkovice+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovácko II ↓

Odra Petřkovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Slovácko II or draw
60%
Slovácko II or Odra Petřkovice
76%
Draw or Odra Petřkovice
65%

Winning margin

Slovácko II wins by 2+
16%
Odra Petřkovice wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Slovácko II 1+ goals
76%
Slovácko II 2+ goals
42%
Slovácko II 3+ goals
18%
Odra Petřkovice 1+ goals
79%
Odra Petřkovice 2+ goals
46%
Odra Petřkovice 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Slovácko II (draw refunded)
47%
Odra Petřkovice (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovácko II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.28 · 82 matches

Odra Petřkovice away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovácko II attack 1.79 + Odra Petřkovice defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.44

Odra Petřkovice attack 1.83 + Slovácko II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Slovácko II scores more
35%
level
24%
Odra Petřkovice scores more
40%

Odra Petřkovice at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Odra Petřkovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Slovácko II host Odra Petřkovice

March 28, 2021: Slovácko II take on Odra Petřkovice in 3. liga - MSFL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Slovácko II host Odra Petřkovice at Stadion Na Bělince.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.