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Odra Petřkovice vs Slovácko II — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Odra Petřkovice
Odra Petřkovice
CANC
15:30
Slovácko II
Slovácko II
5/30/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 30Stadion Petřkovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Odra Petřkovice46%
×Draw24%
Slovácko II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Petřkovice
1.62
Slovácko II
1.27

Odra Petřkovice creates 28% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 82 away

creates per match

Odra Petřkovice
1.65
Slovácko II
1.41

allows per match

Odra Petřkovice
1.12
Slovácko II
1.59

finishing

Odra Petřkovice+0.00on par
Slovácko II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Petřkovice ↓

Slovácko II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Odra Petřkovice or draw
70%
Odra Petřkovice or Slovácko II
76%
Draw or Slovácko II
54%

Winning margin

Odra Petřkovice wins by 2+
23%
Slovácko II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Odra Petřkovice 1+ goals
80%
Odra Petřkovice 2+ goals
48%
Odra Petřkovice 3+ goals
22%
Slovácko II 1+ goals
72%
Slovácko II 2+ goals
36%
Slovácko II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Odra Petřkovice (draw refunded)
60%
Slovácko II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Petřkovice at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Slovácko II away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.59 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Petřkovice attack 1.65 + Slovácko II defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.62

Slovácko II attack 1.41 + Odra Petřkovice defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Odra Petřkovice scores more
46%
level
24%
Slovácko II scores more
30%

Odra Petřkovice at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Odra Petřkovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Odra Petřkovice vs Slovácko II — Match Preview

Odra Petřkovice face Slovácko II on May 30, 2021 in this 3. liga - MSFL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Odra Petřkovice host Slovácko II at Stadion Petřkovice.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.