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Slovácko II vs Baník Ostrava II — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Slovácko II
Slovácko II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Baník Ostrava II
Baník Ostrava II
3/23/20243. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 20Stadion Na Bělince

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Slovácko II34%
×Draw24%
Baník Ostrava II43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovácko II
1.46
Baník Ostrava II
1.68

Baník Ostrava II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 65 away

creates per match

Slovácko II
1.79
Baník Ostrava II
2.08

allows per match

Slovácko II
1.28
Baník Ostrava II
1.14

finishing

Slovácko II+0.00on par
Baník Ostrava II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovácko II ↓

Baník Ostrava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Slovácko II or draw
57%
Slovácko II or Baník Ostrava II
76%
Draw or Baník Ostrava II
66%

Winning margin

Slovácko II wins by 2+
15%
Baník Ostrava II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Slovácko II 1+ goals
77%
Slovácko II 2+ goals
43%
Slovácko II 3+ goals
18%
Baník Ostrava II 1+ goals
81%
Baník Ostrava II 2+ goals
50%
Baník Ostrava II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Slovácko II (draw refunded)
44%
Baník Ostrava II (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovácko II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.28 · 82 matches

Baník Ostrava II away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.14 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovácko II attack 1.79 + Baník Ostrava II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.46

Baník Ostrava II attack 2.08 + Slovácko II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Slovácko II scores more
34%
level
24%
Baník Ostrava II scores more
43%

Baník Ostrava II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Baník Ostrava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovácko II vs Baník Ostrava II

Slovácko II and Baník Ostrava II drew 1-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Na Bělince in Kunovice.