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Baník Ostrava II vs Slovácko II — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Baník Ostrava II
Baník Ostrava II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Slovácko II
Slovácko II
8/20/20233. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 3Bazaly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Baník Ostrava II53%
×Draw22%
Slovácko II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Ostrava II
1.92
Slovácko II
1.25

Baník Ostrava II creates 54% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 82 away

creates per match

Baník Ostrava II
2.25
Slovácko II
1.41

allows per match

Baník Ostrava II
1.09
Slovácko II
1.59

finishing

Baník Ostrava II+0.00on par
Slovácko II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava II ↓

Slovácko II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava II or draw
75%
Baník Ostrava II or Slovácko II
78%
Draw or Slovácko II
47%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava II wins by 2+
30%
Slovácko II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava II 1+ goals
85%
Baník Ostrava II 2+ goals
57%
Baník Ostrava II 3+ goals
30%
Slovácko II 1+ goals
71%
Slovácko II 2+ goals
36%
Slovácko II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava II (draw refunded)
68%
Slovácko II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava II at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.09 · 65 matches

Slovácko II away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.59 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava II attack 2.25 + Slovácko II defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.92

Slovácko II attack 1.41 + Baník Ostrava II defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Baník Ostrava II scores more
53%
level
22%
Slovácko II scores more
25%

Baník Ostrava II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Baník Ostrava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baník Ostrava II vs Slovácko II

Baník Ostrava II beat Slovácko II 1-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on August 20, 2023.

The match was played at Bazaly in Slezská Ostrava.