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Slough Town vs Farnborough — League #51 2026

Slough Town
Slough Town
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Farnborough
Farnborough
3/8/2025League #51League #51 · South - 37Arbour Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Slough Town39%
×Draw22%
Farnborough38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slough Town
1.77
Farnborough
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 17 away

creates per match

Slough Town
1.83
Farnborough
2.00

allows per match

Slough Town
1.50
Farnborough
1.71

finishing

Slough Town+0.00on par
Farnborough+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slough Town ↓

Farnborough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Slough Town or draw
62%
Slough Town or Farnborough
78%
Draw or Farnborough
61%

Winning margin

Slough Town wins by 2+
20%
Farnborough wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Slough Town 1+ goals
83%
Slough Town 2+ goals
53%
Slough Town 3+ goals
26%
Farnborough 1+ goals
83%
Farnborough 2+ goals
52%
Farnborough 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Slough Town (draw refunded)
51%
Farnborough (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slough Town at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Farnborough away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slough Town attack 1.83 + Farnborough defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.77

Farnborough attack 2.00 + Slough Town defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Slough Town scores more
39%
level
22%
Farnborough scores more
38%

Slough Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Slough Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slough Town vs Farnborough

Slough Town and Farnborough drew 1-1 in League #51 on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Arbour Park in Slough, Buckinghamshire.