Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Slonim vs Lokomotiv Gomel — 1. Division 2018

Slonim
Slonim
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lokomotiv Gomel
Lokomotiv Gomel
6/14/20241. Division1. Division · Round 11Stadyen Yunatstva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 121+ matches

Slonim27%
×Draw26%
Lokomotiv Gomel47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slonim
1.10
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.52

Lokomotiv Gomel creates 38% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 121 away

creates per match

Slonim
0.92
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.40

allows per match

Slonim
1.65
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.29

finishing

Slonim+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Gomel+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slonim ↓

Lokomotiv Gomel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Slonim or draw
53%
Slonim or Lokomotiv Gomel
74%
Draw or Lokomotiv Gomel
73%

Winning margin

Slonim wins by 2+
11%
Lokomotiv Gomel wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Slonim 1+ goals
67%
Slonim 2+ goals
30%
Slonim 3+ goals
10%
Lokomotiv Gomel 1+ goals
78%
Lokomotiv Gomel 2+ goals
45%
Lokomotiv Gomel 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Slonim (draw refunded)
37%
Lokomotiv Gomel (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slonim at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.65 · 127 matches

Lokomotiv Gomel away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.29 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slonim attack 0.92 + Lokomotiv Gomel defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.10

Lokomotiv Gomel attack 1.40 + Slonim defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Slonim scores more
27%
level
26%
Lokomotiv Gomel scores more
47%

Lokomotiv Gomel at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lokomotiv Gomel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slonim vs Lokomotiv Gomel

Slonim beat Lokomotiv Gomel 1-0 in 1. Division on June 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stadyen Yunatstva in Slonim.