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Lokomotiv Gomel vs Slonim — 1. Division 2018

Lokomotiv Gomel
Lokomotiv Gomel
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Slonim
Slonim
10/12/20241. Division1. Division · Round 28Stadyen Lakamatyu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Lokomotiv Gomel60%
×Draw22%
Slonim19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Gomel
1.96
Slonim
1.00

Lokomotiv Gomel creates 96% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 133 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Gomel
2.00
Slonim
0.94

allows per match

Lokomotiv Gomel
1.07
Slonim
1.91

finishing

Lokomotiv Gomel+0.00on par
Slonim+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Gomel ↓

Slonim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Gomel or draw
81%
Lokomotiv Gomel or Slonim
78%
Draw or Slonim
40%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Gomel wins by 2+
36%
Slonim wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Gomel 1+ goals
86%
Lokomotiv Gomel 2+ goals
58%
Lokomotiv Gomel 3+ goals
31%
Slonim 1+ goals
63%
Slonim 2+ goals
26%
Slonim 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Gomel (draw refunded)
76%
Slonim (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Gomel at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.07 · 120 matches

Slonim away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.91 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Gomel attack 2.00 + Slonim defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.96

Slonim attack 0.94 + Lokomotiv Gomel defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Lokomotiv Gomel scores more
60%
level
22%
Slonim scores more
19%

Lokomotiv Gomel at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Lokomotiv Gomel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Gomel vs Slonim

Lokomotiv Gomel beat Slonim 1-0 in 1. Division on October 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadyen Lakamatyu in Gomel.