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Sloga Vinica vs Besa Dobërdoll — Second League 2019

Sloga Vinica
Sloga Vinica
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Besa Dobërdoll
Besa Dobërdoll
3/12/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 20Gradski Stadion Filip Vtori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sloga Vinica23%
×Draw24%
Besa Dobërdoll53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Vinica
1.06
Besa Dobërdoll
1.72

Besa Dobërdoll creates 62% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 30 away

creates per match

Sloga Vinica
1.30
Besa Dobërdoll
1.67

allows per match

Sloga Vinica
1.77
Besa Dobërdoll
0.83

finishing

Sloga Vinica+0.00on par
Besa Dobërdoll+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Vinica ↓

Besa Dobërdoll →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sloga Vinica or draw
47%
Sloga Vinica or Besa Dobërdoll
76%
Draw or Besa Dobërdoll
77%

Winning margin

Sloga Vinica wins by 2+
9%
Besa Dobërdoll wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Sloga Vinica 1+ goals
65%
Sloga Vinica 2+ goals
29%
Sloga Vinica 3+ goals
9%
Besa Dobërdoll 1+ goals
82%
Besa Dobërdoll 2+ goals
51%
Besa Dobërdoll 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Sloga Vinica (draw refunded)
31%
Besa Dobërdoll (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Vinica at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.77 · 43 matches

Besa Dobërdoll away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Vinica attack 1.30 + Besa Dobërdoll defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.06

Besa Dobërdoll attack 1.67 + Sloga Vinica defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sloga Vinica scores more
23%
level
24%
Besa Dobërdoll scores more
53%

Besa Dobërdoll at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Besa Dobërdoll will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Sloga Vinica 0–1 Besa Dobërdoll

Besa Dobërdoll beat Sloga Vinica 1-0 in Second League on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion Filip Vtori in Vinica.