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Besa Dobërdoll vs Sloga Vinica — Second League 2019

Besa Dobërdoll
Besa Dobërdoll
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Sloga Vinica
Sloga Vinica
9/18/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 5Stadion Vrapčište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Besa Dobërdoll71%
×Draw19%
Sloga Vinica10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besa Dobërdoll
2.09
Sloga Vinica
0.64

Besa Dobërdoll creates 227% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 44 away

creates per match

Besa Dobërdoll
2.17
Sloga Vinica
0.77

allows per match

Besa Dobërdoll
0.50
Sloga Vinica
2.02

finishing

Besa Dobërdoll+0.00on par
Sloga Vinica+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besa Dobërdoll ↓

Sloga Vinica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Besa Dobërdoll or draw
90%
Besa Dobërdoll or Sloga Vinica
81%
Draw or Sloga Vinica
29%

Winning margin

Besa Dobërdoll wins by 2+
46%
Sloga Vinica wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Besa Dobërdoll 1+ goals
88%
Besa Dobërdoll 2+ goals
62%
Besa Dobërdoll 3+ goals
34%
Sloga Vinica 1+ goals
47%
Sloga Vinica 2+ goals
14%
Sloga Vinica 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Besa Dobërdoll (draw refunded)
87%
Sloga Vinica (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besa Dobërdoll at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.50 · 30 matches

Sloga Vinica away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.02 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besa Dobërdoll attack 2.17 + Sloga Vinica defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.09

Sloga Vinica attack 0.77 + Besa Dobërdoll defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Besa Dobërdoll scores more
71%
level
19%
Sloga Vinica scores more
10%

Besa Dobërdoll at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Besa Dobërdoll will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Besa Dobërdoll 3–2 Sloga Vinica

Besa Dobërdoll beat Sloga Vinica 3-2 in Second League on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Vrapčište in Vrapchishte.