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Sloga Požega vs RSK Rabrovo — Srpska Liga - West 2025

Sloga Požega
Sloga Požega
FT
2 – 1
RSK Rabrovo
RSK Rabrovo
9/5/2021Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 4Stadion FK Sloga Požega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Sloga Požega63%
×Draw22%
RSK Rabrovo15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Požega
1.83
RSK Rabrovo
0.75

Sloga Požega creates 144% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 21 away

creates per match

Sloga Požega
1.56
RSK Rabrovo
0.67

allows per match

Sloga Požega
0.83
RSK Rabrovo
2.10

finishing

Sloga Požega+0.00on par
RSK Rabrovo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Požega ↓

RSK Rabrovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sloga Požega or draw
85%
Sloga Požega or RSK Rabrovo
78%
Draw or RSK Rabrovo
37%

Winning margin

Sloga Požega wins by 2+
37%
RSK Rabrovo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sloga Požega 1+ goals
84%
Sloga Požega 2+ goals
54%
Sloga Požega 3+ goals
28%
RSK Rabrovo 1+ goals
53%
RSK Rabrovo 2+ goals
17%
RSK Rabrovo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sloga Požega (draw refunded)
81%
RSK Rabrovo (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Požega at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

RSK Rabrovo away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Požega attack 1.56 + RSK Rabrovo defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.83

RSK Rabrovo attack 0.67 + Sloga Požega defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Sloga Požega scores more
63%
level
22%
RSK Rabrovo scores more
15%

Sloga Požega at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sloga Požega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Sloga Požega 2–1 RSK Rabrovo

Sloga Požega beat RSK Rabrovo 2-1 in Srpska Liga - West on September 5, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Sloga Požega in Požega.