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Sloga Požega vs Real Podunavci — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Sloga Požega
Sloga Požega
FT
3 – 1
Real Podunavci
Real Podunavci
3/23/2024Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 18Stadion FK Sloga Požega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Sloga Požega53%
×Draw26%
Real Podunavci21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Požega
1.52
Real Podunavci
0.85

Sloga Požega creates 79% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 74 away

creates per match

Sloga Požega
1.87
Real Podunavci
0.99

allows per match

Sloga Požega
0.71
Real Podunavci
1.16

finishing

Sloga Požega+0.00on par
Real Podunavci+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Požega ↓

Real Podunavci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sloga Požega or draw
79%
Sloga Požega or Real Podunavci
74%
Draw or Real Podunavci
47%

Winning margin

Sloga Požega wins by 2+
27%
Real Podunavci wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sloga Požega 1+ goals
78%
Sloga Požega 2+ goals
45%
Sloga Požega 3+ goals
20%
Real Podunavci 1+ goals
57%
Real Podunavci 2+ goals
21%
Real Podunavci 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sloga Požega (draw refunded)
72%
Real Podunavci (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Požega at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.71 · 100 matches

Real Podunavci away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.16 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Požega attack 1.87 + Real Podunavci defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.52

Real Podunavci attack 0.99 + Sloga Požega defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sloga Požega scores more
53%
level
26%
Real Podunavci scores more
21%

Sloga Požega at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sloga Požega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Sloga Požega 3–1 Real Podunavci

Sloga Požega beat Real Podunavci 3-1 in Srpska Liga - West on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Sloga Požega in Požega.