Real Podunavci 1–0 Sloga Požega: Result & Stats

Real Podunavci

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sloga Požega

11/8/2025

Srpska Liga - West · West - 14Stadion Real Podunavci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Real Podunavci42%

×Draw28%

Sloga Požega31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real PodunavciExpected goals in this matchSloga Požega

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.06

Real Podunavci

1.29

Sloga Požega

1.06

Real Podunavci creates 22% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 101 away

1.49

creates per match

1.11

1.00

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Real Podunavci

1.49

Sloga Požega

1.11

allows per match

Real Podunavci

1.00

Sloga Požega

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Podunavci+0.00on par

Sloga Požega+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Podunavci ↓

Sloga Požega →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Real Podunavci or draw

69%

Real Podunavci or Sloga Požega

72%

Draw or Sloga Požega

58%

Winning margin

Real Podunavci wins by 2+

19%

Sloga Požega wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Real Podunavci 1+ goals

72%

Real Podunavci 2+ goals

37%

Real Podunavci 3+ goals

14%

Sloga Požega 1+ goals

65%

Sloga Požega 2+ goals

29%

Sloga Požega 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Real Podunavci (draw refunded)

58%

Sloga Požega (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Podunavci at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.00 · 74 matches

Sloga Požega away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.10 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Podunavci attack 1.49 + Sloga Požega defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Sloga Požega attack 1.11 + Real Podunavci defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Real Podunavci scores more

42%

level

28%

Sloga Požega scores more

31%

Real Podunavci at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Real Podunavci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff