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Sloga Požega vs Mladi Radnik — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Sloga Požega
Sloga Požega
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Mladi Radnik
Mladi Radnik
11/11/2023Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 13Stadion FK Sloga Požega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Sloga Požega62%
×Draw23%
Mladi Radnik15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Požega
1.75
Mladi Radnik
0.73

Sloga Požega creates 140% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 87 away

creates per match

Sloga Požega
1.87
Mladi Radnik
0.76

allows per match

Sloga Požega
0.71
Mladi Radnik
1.64

finishing

Sloga Požega+0.00on par
Mladi Radnik+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Požega ↓

Mladi Radnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sloga Požega or draw
85%
Sloga Požega or Mladi Radnik
77%
Draw or Mladi Radnik
38%

Winning margin

Sloga Požega wins by 2+
35%
Mladi Radnik wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sloga Požega 1+ goals
83%
Sloga Požega 2+ goals
52%
Sloga Požega 3+ goals
25%
Mladi Radnik 1+ goals
52%
Mladi Radnik 2+ goals
17%
Mladi Radnik 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sloga Požega (draw refunded)
80%
Mladi Radnik (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Požega at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.71 · 100 matches

Mladi Radnik away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.64 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Požega attack 1.87 + Mladi Radnik defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.75

Mladi Radnik attack 0.76 + Sloga Požega defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sloga Požega scores more
62%
level
23%
Mladi Radnik scores more
15%

Sloga Požega at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sloga Požega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sloga Požega vs Mladi Radnik

Sloga Požega beat Mladi Radnik 2-1 in Srpska Liga - West on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Sloga Požega in Požega.