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Mladi Radnik vs Sloga Požega — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Mladi Radnik
Mladi Radnik
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sloga Požega
Sloga Požega
4/29/2023Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 24Stadion Vašarište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Mladi Radnik41%
×Draw28%
Sloga Požega30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladi Radnik
1.24
Sloga Požega
1.02

Mladi Radnik creates 22% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 101 away

creates per match

Mladi Radnik
1.38
Sloga Požega
1.11

allows per match

Mladi Radnik
0.92
Sloga Požega
1.10

finishing

Mladi Radnik+0.00on par
Sloga Požega+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladi Radnik ↓

Sloga Požega →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mladi Radnik or draw
70%
Mladi Radnik or Sloga Požega
72%
Draw or Sloga Požega
59%

Winning margin

Mladi Radnik wins by 2+
18%
Sloga Požega wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mladi Radnik 1+ goals
71%
Mladi Radnik 2+ goals
35%
Mladi Radnik 3+ goals
13%
Sloga Požega 1+ goals
64%
Sloga Požega 2+ goals
27%
Sloga Požega 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mladi Radnik (draw refunded)
58%
Sloga Požega (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladi Radnik at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.92 · 86 matches

Sloga Požega away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.10 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladi Radnik attack 1.38 + Sloga Požega defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.24

Sloga Požega attack 1.11 + Mladi Radnik defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mladi Radnik scores more
41%
level
28%
Sloga Požega scores more
30%

Mladi Radnik at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mladi Radnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Mladi Radnik 2–0 Sloga Požega

Mladi Radnik beat Sloga Požega 2-0 in Srpska Liga - West on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Vašarište in Požarevac.