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Sloga Požega vs Jošanica — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Sloga Požega
Sloga Požega
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Jošanica
Jošanica
3/8/2025Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 16Stadion FK Sloga Požega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Sloga Požega58%
×Draw24%
Jošanica18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Požega
1.71
Jošanica
0.82

Sloga Požega creates 109% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 70 away

creates per match

Sloga Požega
1.87
Jošanica
0.94

allows per match

Sloga Požega
0.71
Jošanica
1.54

finishing

Sloga Požega+0.00on par
Jošanica+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Požega ↓

Jošanica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sloga Požega or draw
82%
Sloga Požega or Jošanica
76%
Draw or Jošanica
42%

Winning margin

Sloga Požega wins by 2+
33%
Jošanica wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sloga Požega 1+ goals
82%
Sloga Požega 2+ goals
51%
Sloga Požega 3+ goals
24%
Jošanica 1+ goals
56%
Jošanica 2+ goals
20%
Jošanica 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sloga Požega (draw refunded)
77%
Jošanica (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Požega at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.71 · 100 matches

Jošanica away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.54 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Požega attack 1.87 + Jošanica defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.71

Jošanica attack 0.94 + Sloga Požega defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sloga Požega scores more
58%
level
24%
Jošanica scores more
18%

Sloga Požega at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sloga Požega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sloga Požega vs Jošanica

Sloga Požega beat Jošanica 2-1 in Srpska Liga - West on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion FK Sloga Požega in Požega.