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Jošanica vs Sloga Požega — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Jošanica
Jošanica
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sloga Požega
Sloga Požega
8/18/2024Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 1Caizcoin Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Jošanica39%
×Draw29%
Sloga Požega32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jošanica
1.20
Sloga Požega
1.06

Jošanica creates 13% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 101 away

creates per match

Jošanica
1.29
Sloga Požega
1.11

allows per match

Jošanica
1.00
Sloga Požega
1.10

finishing

Jošanica+0.00on par
Sloga Požega+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jošanica ↓

Sloga Požega →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Jošanica or draw
68%
Jošanica or Sloga Požega
71%
Draw or Sloga Požega
61%

Winning margin

Jošanica wins by 2+
17%
Sloga Požega wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Jošanica 1+ goals
70%
Jošanica 2+ goals
34%
Jošanica 3+ goals
12%
Sloga Požega 1+ goals
65%
Sloga Požega 2+ goals
29%
Sloga Požega 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Jošanica (draw refunded)
55%
Sloga Požega (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jošanica at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 70 matches

Sloga Požega away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.10 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jošanica attack 1.29 + Sloga Požega defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.20

Sloga Požega attack 1.11 + Jošanica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Jošanica scores more
39%
level
29%
Sloga Požega scores more
32%

Jošanica at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Jošanica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jošanica vs Sloga Požega

Sloga Požega beat Jošanica 1-0 in Srpska Liga - West on August 18, 2024.

The match was played at Caizcoin Arena in Novi Pazar.