Sloga Požega 1–0 FK Zlatibor: Result & Stats

Sloga Požega

FT

1 – 0

FK Zlatibor

3/10/2024

Srpska Liga - West · West - 16Stadion FK Sloga Požega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Sloga Požega56%

×Draw26%

FK Zlatibor18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloga PožegaExpected goals in this matchFK Zlatibor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.74

Sloga Požega

1.52

FK Zlatibor

0.74

Sloga Požega creates 105% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 44 away

1.87

creates per match

0.77

0.71

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Sloga Požega

1.87

FK Zlatibor

0.77

allows per match

Sloga Požega

0.71

FK Zlatibor

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloga Požega+0.00on par

FK Zlatibor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Požega ↓

FK Zlatibor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sloga Požega or draw

82%

Sloga Požega or FK Zlatibor

74%

Draw or FK Zlatibor

44%

Winning margin

Sloga Požega wins by 2+

29%

FK Zlatibor wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sloga Požega 1+ goals

78%

Sloga Požega 2+ goals

45%

Sloga Požega 3+ goals

20%

FK Zlatibor 1+ goals

52%

FK Zlatibor 2+ goals

17%

FK Zlatibor 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Sloga Požega (draw refunded)

75%

FK Zlatibor (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Požega at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.71 · 100 matches

FK Zlatibor away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.18 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Požega attack 1.87 + FK Zlatibor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.52

FK Zlatibor attack 0.77 + Sloga Požega defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sloga Požega scores more

56%

level

26%

FK Zlatibor scores more

18%

Sloga Požega at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sloga Požega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff