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FK Zlatibor vs Sloga Požega — Srpska Liga - West 2019

FK Zlatibor
FK Zlatibor
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sloga Požega
Sloga Požega
5/10/2025Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 26Stadion Švajcarija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

FK Zlatibor41%
×Draw29%
Sloga Požega30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Zlatibor
1.22
Sloga Požega
1.01

FK Zlatibor creates 21% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 101 away

creates per match

FK Zlatibor
1.33
Sloga Požega
1.11

allows per match

FK Zlatibor
0.91
Sloga Požega
1.10

finishing

FK Zlatibor+0.00on par
Sloga Požega+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Zlatibor ↓

Sloga Požega →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FK Zlatibor or draw
70%
FK Zlatibor or Sloga Požega
71%
Draw or Sloga Požega
59%

Winning margin

FK Zlatibor wins by 2+
18%
Sloga Požega wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FK Zlatibor 1+ goals
70%
FK Zlatibor 2+ goals
34%
FK Zlatibor 3+ goals
12%
Sloga Požega 1+ goals
64%
Sloga Požega 2+ goals
27%
Sloga Požega 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FK Zlatibor (draw refunded)
57%
Sloga Požega (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Zlatibor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.91 · 43 matches

Sloga Požega away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.10 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Zlatibor attack 1.33 + Sloga Požega defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.22

Sloga Požega attack 1.11 + FK Zlatibor defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FK Zlatibor scores more
41%
level
29%
Sloga Požega scores more
30%

FK Zlatibor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FK Zlatibor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: FK Zlatibor 2–0 Sloga Požega

FK Zlatibor beat Sloga Požega 2-0 in Srpska Liga - West on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Švajcarija in Zlatibor.