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Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi vs Real Podunavci — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi
FT
1 – 0
Real Podunavci
Real Podunavci
3/10/2024Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 16Stadion Sloga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi44%
×Draw27%
Real Podunavci29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi
1.39
Real Podunavci
1.07

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi creates 30% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 74 away

creates per match

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi
1.61
Real Podunavci
0.99

allows per match

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi
1.15
Real Podunavci
1.16

finishing

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi+0.00on par
Real Podunavci+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi ↓

Real Podunavci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi or draw
71%
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi or Real Podunavci
73%
Draw or Real Podunavci
56%

Winning margin

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi wins by 2+
21%
Real Podunavci wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi 1+ goals
75%
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi 2+ goals
40%
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi 3+ goals
16%
Real Podunavci 1+ goals
66%
Real Podunavci 2+ goals
29%
Real Podunavci 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi (draw refunded)
60%
Real Podunavci (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.15 · 41 matches

Real Podunavci away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.16 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi attack 1.61 + Real Podunavci defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.39

Real Podunavci attack 0.99 + Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi scores more
44%
level
27%
Real Podunavci scores more
29%

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi vs Real Podunavci

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi beat Real Podunavci 1-0 in Srpska Liga - West on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Sloga in Petrovac na Mlavi.