Real Podunavci 1–3 Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi

Real Podunavci

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi

8/19/2023

Srpska Liga - West · West - 1Stadion Real Podunavci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Real Podunavci54%

×Draw24%

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real PodunavciExpected goals in this matchSloga Petrovac na Mlavi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.94

Real Podunavci

1.66

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi

0.94

Real Podunavci creates 77% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 42 away

1.49

creates per match

0.88

1.00

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Real Podunavci

1.49

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi

0.88

allows per match

Real Podunavci

1.00

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Podunavci+0.00on par

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Podunavci ↓

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Real Podunavci or draw

79%

Real Podunavci or Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi

76%

Draw or Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi

46%

Winning margin

Real Podunavci wins by 2+

29%

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Real Podunavci 1+ goals

81%

Real Podunavci 2+ goals

49%

Real Podunavci 3+ goals

23%

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi 1+ goals

61%

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi 2+ goals

24%

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Real Podunavci (draw refunded)

72%

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Podunavci at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.00 · 74 matches

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.83 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Podunavci attack 1.49 + Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.66

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi attack 0.88 + Real Podunavci defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Real Podunavci scores more

54%

level

24%

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi scores more

21%

Real Podunavci at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Real Podunavci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff