Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sloga Mravince vs NK Zadar — Third NL - Jug 2019

Sloga Mravince
Sloga Mravince
FT
1 – 1
NK Zadar
NK Zadar
9/18/2019Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 4Stadion Glavica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sloga Mravince55%
×Draw23%
NK Zadar22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Mravince
1.81
NK Zadar
1.07

Sloga Mravince creates 69% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 9 away

creates per match

Sloga Mravince
1.95
NK Zadar
1.11

allows per match

Sloga Mravince
1.03
NK Zadar
1.67

finishing

Sloga Mravince+0.00on par
NK Zadar+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Mravince ↓

NK Zadar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sloga Mravince or draw
78%
Sloga Mravince or NK Zadar
77%
Draw or NK Zadar
45%

Winning margin

Sloga Mravince wins by 2+
31%
NK Zadar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sloga Mravince 1+ goals
84%
Sloga Mravince 2+ goals
54%
Sloga Mravince 3+ goals
27%
NK Zadar 1+ goals
66%
NK Zadar 2+ goals
29%
NK Zadar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sloga Mravince (draw refunded)
71%
NK Zadar (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Mravince at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.03 · 102 matches

NK Zadar away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Mravince attack 1.95 + NK Zadar defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.81

NK Zadar attack 1.11 + Sloga Mravince defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sloga Mravince scores more
55%
level
23%
NK Zadar scores more
22%

Sloga Mravince at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sloga Mravince will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Sloga Mravince 1–1 NK Zadar

Sloga Mravince and NK Zadar drew 1-1 in Third NL - Jug on September 18, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Glavica in Mravince.