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NK Zadar vs Sloga Mravince — Third NL - Jug 2019

NK Zadar
NK Zadar
CANC
00:00
Sloga Mravince
Sloga Mravince
3/14/2020Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 19Stadion Stanovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

NK Zadar54%
×Draw23%
Sloga Mravince24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Zadar
1.88
Sloga Mravince
1.18

NK Zadar creates 59% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 102 away

creates per match

NK Zadar
2.11
Sloga Mravince
1.25

allows per match

NK Zadar
1.11
Sloga Mravince
1.65

finishing

NK Zadar+0.00on par
Sloga Mravince+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Zadar ↓

Sloga Mravince →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

NK Zadar or draw
76%
NK Zadar or Sloga Mravince
77%
Draw or Sloga Mravince
46%

Winning margin

NK Zadar wins by 2+
31%
Sloga Mravince wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

NK Zadar 1+ goals
85%
NK Zadar 2+ goals
56%
NK Zadar 3+ goals
29%
Sloga Mravince 1+ goals
69%
Sloga Mravince 2+ goals
33%
Sloga Mravince 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

NK Zadar (draw refunded)
69%
Sloga Mravince (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Zadar at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Sloga Mravince away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.65 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Zadar attack 2.11 + Sloga Mravince defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.88

Sloga Mravince attack 1.25 + NK Zadar defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

NK Zadar scores more
54%
level
23%
Sloga Mravince scores more
24%

NK Zadar at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "NK Zadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NK Zadar face Sloga Mravince (Third NL - Jug)

Third NL - Jug returns with NK Zadar hosting Sloga Mravince. Match starts March 14, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

NK Zadar host Sloga Mravince at Stadion Stanovi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.