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Sloga Mravince vs Hrvatski vitez — Third NL - Jug 2019

Sloga Mravince
Sloga Mravince
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hrvatski vitez
Hrvatski vitez
10/18/2025Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 9Stadion Glavica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Sloga Mravince58%
×Draw22%
Hrvatski vitez20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Mravince
1.96
Hrvatski vitez
1.07

Sloga Mravince creates 83% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 93 away

creates per match

Sloga Mravince
1.95
Hrvatski vitez
1.11

allows per match

Sloga Mravince
1.03
Hrvatski vitez
1.97

finishing

Sloga Mravince+0.00on par
Hrvatski vitez+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Mravince ↓

Hrvatski vitez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sloga Mravince or draw
80%
Sloga Mravince or Hrvatski vitez
78%
Draw or Hrvatski vitez
42%

Winning margin

Sloga Mravince wins by 2+
34%
Hrvatski vitez wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sloga Mravince 1+ goals
86%
Sloga Mravince 2+ goals
58%
Sloga Mravince 3+ goals
31%
Hrvatski vitez 1+ goals
66%
Hrvatski vitez 2+ goals
29%
Hrvatski vitez 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sloga Mravince (draw refunded)
74%
Hrvatski vitez (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Mravince at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.03 · 102 matches

Hrvatski vitez away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.97 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Mravince attack 1.95 + Hrvatski vitez defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.96

Hrvatski vitez attack 1.11 + Sloga Mravince defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sloga Mravince scores more
58%
level
22%
Hrvatski vitez scores more
20%

Sloga Mravince at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sloga Mravince will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Sloga Mravince 3–0 Hrvatski vitez

Sloga Mravince beat Hrvatski vitez 3-0 in Third NL - Jug on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Glavica in Mravince.