Hrvatski vitez 3–0 Sloga Mravince: Result & Stats

Hrvatski vitez

FT

3 – 0

Sloga Mravince

3/2/2024

Third NL - Jug · South - 17Gradski stadion Gordan Demo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Hrvatski vitez54%

×Draw23%

Sloga Mravince23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hrvatski vitezExpected goals in this matchSloga Mravince

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.10

Hrvatski vitez

1.82

Sloga Mravince

1.10

Hrvatski vitez creates 65% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 102 away

1.99

creates per match

1.25

0.95

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Hrvatski vitez

1.99

Sloga Mravince

1.25

allows per match

Hrvatski vitez

0.95

Sloga Mravince

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hrvatski vitez+0.00on par

Sloga Mravince+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvatski vitez ↓

Sloga Mravince →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Hrvatski vitez or draw

77%

Hrvatski vitez or Sloga Mravince

77%

Draw or Sloga Mravince

46%

Winning margin

Hrvatski vitez wins by 2+

31%

Sloga Mravince wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Hrvatski vitez 1+ goals

84%

Hrvatski vitez 2+ goals

54%

Hrvatski vitez 3+ goals

27%

Sloga Mravince 1+ goals

67%

Sloga Mravince 2+ goals

30%

Sloga Mravince 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hrvatski vitez (draw refunded)

70%

Sloga Mravince (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvatski vitez at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.95 · 93 matches

Sloga Mravince away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.65 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvatski vitez attack 1.99 + Sloga Mravince defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.82

Sloga Mravince attack 1.25 + Hrvatski vitez defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hrvatski vitez scores more

54%

level

23%

Sloga Mravince scores more

23%

Hrvatski vitez at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hrvatski vitez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff