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Sloga Mravince vs GOŠK Dubrovnik — Third NL - Jug 2019

Sloga Mravince
Sloga Mravince
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
GOŠK Dubrovnik
GOŠK Dubrovnik
11/2/2024Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 11Stadion Glavica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Sloga Mravince59%
×Draw22%
GOŠK Dubrovnik19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Mravince
1.87
GOŠK Dubrovnik
0.95

Sloga Mravince creates 97% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 102 away

creates per match

Sloga Mravince
1.95
GOŠK Dubrovnik
0.86

allows per match

Sloga Mravince
1.03
GOŠK Dubrovnik
1.79

finishing

Sloga Mravince+0.00on par
GOŠK Dubrovnik+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Mravince ↓

GOŠK Dubrovnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sloga Mravince or draw
81%
Sloga Mravince or GOŠK Dubrovnik
78%
Draw or GOŠK Dubrovnik
41%

Winning margin

Sloga Mravince wins by 2+
34%
GOŠK Dubrovnik wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sloga Mravince 1+ goals
85%
Sloga Mravince 2+ goals
56%
Sloga Mravince 3+ goals
29%
GOŠK Dubrovnik 1+ goals
61%
GOŠK Dubrovnik 2+ goals
25%
GOŠK Dubrovnik 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sloga Mravince (draw refunded)
76%
GOŠK Dubrovnik (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Mravince at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.03 · 102 matches

GOŠK Dubrovnik away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.79 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Mravince attack 1.95 + GOŠK Dubrovnik defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.87

GOŠK Dubrovnik attack 0.86 + Sloga Mravince defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sloga Mravince scores more
59%
level
22%
GOŠK Dubrovnik scores more
19%

Sloga Mravince at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sloga Mravince will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sloga Mravince vs GOŠK Dubrovnik

Sloga Mravince beat GOŠK Dubrovnik 2-1 in Third NL - Jug on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Glavica in Mravince.