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GOŠK Dubrovnik vs Sloga Mravince — Third NL - Jug 2019

GOŠK Dubrovnik
GOŠK Dubrovnik
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sloga Mravince
Sloga Mravince
5/3/2025Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 26Gradski stadion Lapad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

GOŠK Dubrovnik46%
×Draw26%
Sloga Mravince28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOŠK Dubrovnik
1.49
Sloga Mravince
1.11

GOŠK Dubrovnik creates 34% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 102 away

creates per match

GOŠK Dubrovnik
1.33
Sloga Mravince
1.25

allows per match

GOŠK Dubrovnik
0.97
Sloga Mravince
1.65

finishing

GOŠK Dubrovnik+0.00on par
Sloga Mravince+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOŠK Dubrovnik ↓

Sloga Mravince →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

GOŠK Dubrovnik or draw
72%
GOŠK Dubrovnik or Sloga Mravince
74%
Draw or Sloga Mravince
54%

Winning margin

GOŠK Dubrovnik wins by 2+
23%
Sloga Mravince wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

GOŠK Dubrovnik 1+ goals
77%
GOŠK Dubrovnik 2+ goals
44%
GOŠK Dubrovnik 3+ goals
19%
Sloga Mravince 1+ goals
67%
Sloga Mravince 2+ goals
30%
Sloga Mravince 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

GOŠK Dubrovnik (draw refunded)
62%
Sloga Mravince (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOŠK Dubrovnik at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.97 · 102 matches

Sloga Mravince away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.65 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOŠK Dubrovnik attack 1.33 + Sloga Mravince defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.49

Sloga Mravince attack 1.25 + GOŠK Dubrovnik defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

GOŠK Dubrovnik scores more
46%
level
26%
Sloga Mravince scores more
28%

GOŠK Dubrovnik at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "GOŠK Dubrovnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GOŠK Dubrovnik vs Sloga Mravince

GOŠK Dubrovnik and Sloga Mravince drew 1-1 in Third NL - Jug on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Lapad in Dubrovnik.