Sloga Leskovac 1–2 Hajduk Veljko: Result & Stats

Sloga Leskovac

FT

1 – 2

Hajduk Veljko

4/30/2022

Srpska Liga - East · East - 25Igralište FK Sloga Leskovac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sloga Leskovac49%

×Draw23%

Hajduk Veljko29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloga LeskovacExpected goals in this matchHajduk Veljko

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.39

Sloga Leskovac

1.88

Hajduk Veljko

1.39

Sloga Leskovac creates 35% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 15 away

1.69

creates per match

0.60

2.17

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Sloga Leskovac

1.69

Hajduk Veljko

0.60

allows per match

Sloga Leskovac

2.17

Hajduk Veljko

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloga Leskovac+0.00on par

Hajduk Veljko+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Leskovac ↓

Hajduk Veljko →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Sloga Leskovac or draw

71%

Sloga Leskovac or Hajduk Veljko

77%

Draw or Hajduk Veljko

51%

Winning margin

Sloga Leskovac wins by 2+

27%

Hajduk Veljko wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sloga Leskovac 1+ goals

85%

Sloga Leskovac 2+ goals

56%

Sloga Leskovac 3+ goals

29%

Hajduk Veljko 1+ goals

75%

Hajduk Veljko 2+ goals

40%

Hajduk Veljko 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Sloga Leskovac (draw refunded)

63%

Hajduk Veljko (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Leskovac at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.17 · 29 matches

Hajduk Veljko away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Leskovac attack 1.69 + Hajduk Veljko defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.88

Hajduk Veljko attack 0.60 + Sloga Leskovac defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sloga Leskovac scores more

49%

level

23%

Hajduk Veljko scores more

29%

Sloga Leskovac at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sloga Leskovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff