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Hajduk Veljko vs Sloga Leskovac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Hajduk Veljko
Hajduk Veljko
FT
1 – 0
Sloga Leskovac
Sloga Leskovac
10/17/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 10Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Hajduk Veljko54%
×Draw23%
Sloga Leskovac23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hajduk Veljko
1.77
Sloga Leskovac
1.07

Hajduk Veljko creates 65% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 29 away

creates per match

Hajduk Veljko
1.14
Sloga Leskovac
0.93

allows per match

Hajduk Veljko
1.21
Sloga Leskovac
2.41

finishing

Hajduk Veljko+0.00on par
Sloga Leskovac+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajduk Veljko ↓

Sloga Leskovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hajduk Veljko or draw
77%
Hajduk Veljko or Sloga Leskovac
77%
Draw or Sloga Leskovac
46%

Winning margin

Hajduk Veljko wins by 2+
30%
Sloga Leskovac wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hajduk Veljko 1+ goals
83%
Hajduk Veljko 2+ goals
53%
Hajduk Veljko 3+ goals
26%
Sloga Leskovac 1+ goals
66%
Sloga Leskovac 2+ goals
29%
Sloga Leskovac 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hajduk Veljko (draw refunded)
70%
Sloga Leskovac (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajduk Veljko at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Sloga Leskovac away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.41 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajduk Veljko attack 1.14 + Sloga Leskovac defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.77

Sloga Leskovac attack 0.93 + Hajduk Veljko defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hajduk Veljko scores more
54%
level
23%
Sloga Leskovac scores more
23%

Hajduk Veljko at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hajduk Veljko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hajduk Veljko vs Sloga Leskovac

Hajduk Veljko beat Sloga Leskovac 1-0 in Srpska Liga - East on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Negotin.