Sloga Doboj 1–0 Sloboda Tuzla: Result & Stats

Sloga Doboj

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sloboda Tuzla

A. Omić 25'

3/1/2025

Premijer Liga · Round 20Dvorana SC u Doboju

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Sloga Doboj50%

×Draw27%

Sloboda Tuzla23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloga DobojExpected goals in this matchSloboda Tuzla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.88

Sloga Doboj

1.42

Sloboda Tuzla

0.88

Sloga Doboj creates 61% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 81 away

1.21

creates per match

0.57

1.18

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Sloga Doboj

1.21

Sloboda Tuzla

0.57

allows per match

Sloga Doboj

1.18

Sloboda Tuzla

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloga Doboj+0.00on par

Sloboda Tuzla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Doboj ↓

Sloboda Tuzla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sloga Doboj or draw

77%

Sloga Doboj or Sloboda Tuzla

73%

Draw or Sloboda Tuzla

50%

Winning margin

Sloga Doboj wins by 2+

24%

Sloboda Tuzla wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sloga Doboj 1+ goals

76%

Sloga Doboj 2+ goals

41%

Sloga Doboj 3+ goals

17%

Sloboda Tuzla 1+ goals

59%

Sloboda Tuzla 2+ goals

22%

Sloboda Tuzla 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sloga Doboj (draw refunded)

68%

Sloboda Tuzla (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Doboj at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

Sloboda Tuzla away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.64 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Doboj attack 1.21 + Sloboda Tuzla defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.42

Sloboda Tuzla attack 0.57 + Sloga Doboj defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sloga Doboj scores more

50%

level

27%

Sloboda Tuzla scores more

23%

Sloga Doboj at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sloga Doboj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

A. Omić

32'

A. Kurtalic

46'

B. Tatar← Z. Karać

59'

M. Numanović← B. Mešinović

59'

A. Raca← P. Bojo

67'

H. Ovčina← A. Dejanović

69'

B. Tatar

70'

D. Kalesić← A. Beganović

78'

S. Husić← H. Hasanović

78'

K. Dervišagić← K. Lamadžema

80'

N. Mandić← T. Jović

80'

F. Predragović← M. Veselinović

82'

H. Beganovic

90'

A. Raca

90+1'

D. Molls← N. Mekić

Sloga

Sloboda

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: N. Jusufbegović

46'▲B. Tatar←▼Z. Karać

67'▲H. Ovčina←▼A. Dejanović

80'▲N. Mandić←▼T. Jović

80'▲F. Predragović←▼M. Veselinović

90+1'▲D. Molls←▼N. Mekić

Sloga Doboj substitutes

TatarOvčinaMandićPredragovićMolls

Manager: I. Janković

59'▲M. Numanović←▼B. Mešinović

59'▲A. Raca←▼P. Bojo

70'▲D. Kalesić←▼A. Beganović

78'▲S. Husić←▼H. Hasanović

78'▲K. Dervišagić←▼K. Lamadžema

Sloboda Tuzla substitutes

NumanovićRacaKalesićHusićDervišagić

Match Recap: Sloga Doboj vs Sloboda Tuzla

Sloga Doboj beat Sloboda Tuzla 1-0 in Premijer Liga on March 1, 2025.

Goals: A. Omić (25').

The match was played at Dvorana SC u Doboju in Doboj.

Sloga Doboj vs Sloboda Tuzla — Premijer Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sloga Doboj vs Sloboda Tuzla