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Sloboda Tuzla vs Sloga Doboj — Premijer Liga 2019

Sloboda Tuzla
Sloboda Tuzla
CANC
00:00
Sloga Doboj
Sloga Doboj
5/13/2023Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 31

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Sloboda Tuzla47%
×Draw27%
Sloga Doboj26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloboda Tuzla
1.44
Sloga Doboj
1.01

Sloboda Tuzla creates 43% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 67 away

creates per match

Sloboda Tuzla
1.15
Sloga Doboj
0.76

allows per match

Sloboda Tuzla
1.26
Sloga Doboj
1.73

finishing

Sloboda Tuzla+0.00on par
Sloga Doboj+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Tuzla ↓

Sloga Doboj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sloboda Tuzla or draw
74%
Sloboda Tuzla or Sloga Doboj
73%
Draw or Sloga Doboj
53%

Winning margin

Sloboda Tuzla wins by 2+
23%
Sloga Doboj wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sloboda Tuzla 1+ goals
76%
Sloboda Tuzla 2+ goals
42%
Sloboda Tuzla 3+ goals
18%
Sloga Doboj 1+ goals
64%
Sloga Doboj 2+ goals
27%
Sloga Doboj 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Tuzla (draw refunded)
64%
Sloga Doboj (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Tuzla at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.26 · 78 matches

Sloga Doboj away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.73 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Tuzla attack 1.15 + Sloga Doboj defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.44

Sloga Doboj attack 0.76 + Sloboda Tuzla defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sloboda Tuzla scores more
47%
level
27%
Sloga Doboj scores more
26%

Sloboda Tuzla at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sloboda Tuzla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sloboda Tuzla host Sloga Doboj

May 13, 2023: Sloboda Tuzla take on Sloga Doboj in Premijer Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.