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Sloga Doboj vs GOŠK Gabela — Premijer Liga 2019

Sloga Doboj
Sloga Doboj
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
GOŠK Gabela
GOŠK Gabela
10/26/2024Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 11Dvorana SC u Doboju

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sloga Doboj50%
×Draw24%
GOŠK Gabela26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Doboj
1.71
GOŠK Gabela
1.17

Sloga Doboj creates 46% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 34 away

creates per match

Sloga Doboj
1.21
GOŠK Gabela
1.15

allows per match

Sloga Doboj
1.18
GOŠK Gabela
2.21

finishing

Sloga Doboj+0.00on par
GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Doboj ↓

GOŠK Gabela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sloga Doboj or draw
74%
Sloga Doboj or GOŠK Gabela
76%
Draw or GOŠK Gabela
50%

Winning margin

Sloga Doboj wins by 2+
27%
GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sloga Doboj 1+ goals
82%
Sloga Doboj 2+ goals
51%
Sloga Doboj 3+ goals
24%
GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals
69%
GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals
33%
GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sloga Doboj (draw refunded)
66%
GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Doboj at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

GOŠK Gabela away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Doboj attack 1.21 + GOŠK Gabela defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.71

GOŠK Gabela attack 1.15 + Sloga Doboj defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sloga Doboj scores more
50%
level
24%
GOŠK Gabela scores more
26%

Sloga Doboj at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sloga Doboj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sloga Doboj vs GOŠK Gabela

Sloga Doboj beat GOŠK Gabela 2-0 in Premijer Liga on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Dvorana SC u Doboju in Doboj.