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GOŠK Gabela vs Sloga Doboj — Premijer Liga 2019

GOŠK Gabela
GOŠK Gabela
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Sloga Doboj
Sloga Doboj
4/18/2025Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 26Stadion Perica-Pero Pavlović

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

GOŠK Gabela34%
×Draw26%
Sloga Doboj40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOŠK Gabela
1.28
Sloga Doboj
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 67 away

creates per match

GOŠK Gabela
0.84
Sloga Doboj
0.76

allows per match

GOŠK Gabela
2.03
Sloga Doboj
1.73

finishing

GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par
Sloga Doboj+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOŠK Gabela ↓

Sloga Doboj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

GOŠK Gabela or draw
60%
GOŠK Gabela or Sloga Doboj
74%
Draw or Sloga Doboj
66%

Winning margin

GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+
15%
Sloga Doboj wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals
72%
GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals
37%
GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals
14%
Sloga Doboj 1+ goals
75%
Sloga Doboj 2+ goals
41%
Sloga Doboj 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)
46%
Sloga Doboj (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOŠK Gabela at home — creates 0.84, concedes 2.03 · 32 matches

Sloga Doboj away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.73 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOŠK Gabela attack 0.84 + Sloga Doboj defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.28

Sloga Doboj attack 0.76 + GOŠK Gabela defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

GOŠK Gabela scores more
34%
level
26%
Sloga Doboj scores more
40%

Sloga Doboj at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sloga Doboj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: GOŠK Gabela 1–2 Sloga Doboj

Sloga Doboj beat GOŠK Gabela 2-1 in Premijer Liga on April 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Perica-Pero Pavlović in Gabela.