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Sloga Doboj vs FK Jedinstvo Brcko — 1st League - RS 2019

Sloga Doboj
Sloga Doboj
FT
2 – 2
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
9/26/20201st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 8Dvorana SC u Doboju

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Sloga Doboj78%
×Draw14%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Doboj
2.67
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
0.74

Sloga Doboj creates 261% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 21 away

creates per match

Sloga Doboj
2.23
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
0.86

allows per match

Sloga Doboj
0.63
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
3.10

finishing

Sloga Doboj+0.00on par
FK Jedinstvo Brcko+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Doboj ↓

FK Jedinstvo Brcko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Sloga Doboj or draw
92%
Sloga Doboj or FK Jedinstvo Brcko
86%
Draw or FK Jedinstvo Brcko
22%

Winning margin

Sloga Doboj wins by 2+
56%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Sloga Doboj 1+ goals
93%
Sloga Doboj 2+ goals
74%
Sloga Doboj 3+ goals
49%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 1+ goals
52%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 2+ goals
17%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sloga Doboj (draw refunded)
91%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Doboj at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.63 · 30 matches

FK Jedinstvo Brcko away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Doboj attack 2.23 + FK Jedinstvo Brcko defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.67

FK Jedinstvo Brcko attack 0.86 + Sloga Doboj defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Sloga Doboj scores more
78%
level
14%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko scores more
8%

Sloga Doboj at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Sloga Doboj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sloga Doboj vs FK Jedinstvo Brcko

Sloga Doboj and FK Jedinstvo Brcko drew 2-2 in 1st League - RS on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Dvorana SC u Doboju in Doboj.