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FK Jedinstvo Brcko vs Sloga Doboj — 1st League - RS 2019

FK Jedinstvo Brcko
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
FT
2 – 1
Sloga Doboj
Sloga Doboj
4/17/20211st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 23Stadion FK Jedinstvo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

FK Jedinstvo Brcko28%
×Draw27%
Sloga Doboj45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Jedinstvo Brcko
1.01
Sloga Doboj
1.36

Sloga Doboj creates 35% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 30 away

creates per match

FK Jedinstvo Brcko
1.05
Sloga Doboj
1.13

allows per match

FK Jedinstvo Brcko
1.59
Sloga Doboj
0.97

finishing

FK Jedinstvo Brcko+0.00on par
Sloga Doboj+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Jedinstvo Brcko ↓

Sloga Doboj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FK Jedinstvo Brcko or draw
55%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko or Sloga Doboj
73%
Draw or Sloga Doboj
72%

Winning margin

FK Jedinstvo Brcko wins by 2+
10%
Sloga Doboj wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

FK Jedinstvo Brcko 1+ goals
64%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 2+ goals
27%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 3+ goals
8%
Sloga Doboj 1+ goals
74%
Sloga Doboj 2+ goals
39%
Sloga Doboj 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FK Jedinstvo Brcko (draw refunded)
38%
Sloga Doboj (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Jedinstvo Brcko at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

Sloga Doboj away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Jedinstvo Brcko attack 1.05 + Sloga Doboj defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.01

Sloga Doboj attack 1.13 + FK Jedinstvo Brcko defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FK Jedinstvo Brcko scores more
28%
level
27%
Sloga Doboj scores more
45%

Sloga Doboj at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sloga Doboj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: FK Jedinstvo Brcko 2–1 Sloga Doboj

FK Jedinstvo Brcko beat Sloga Doboj 2-1 in 1st League - RS on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Jedinstvo in Brčko.