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Sloga Čonoplja vs RFK Novi Sad — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Sloga Čonoplja
Sloga Čonoplja
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
RFK Novi Sad
RFK Novi Sad
9/7/2024Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 4Stadion SC Čonoplja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sloga Čonoplja47%
×Draw26%
RFK Novi Sad27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Čonoplja
1.53
RFK Novi Sad
1.10

Sloga Čonoplja creates 39% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sloga Čonoplja
1.14
RFK Novi Sad
1.07

allows per match

Sloga Čonoplja
1.14
RFK Novi Sad
1.93

finishing

Sloga Čonoplja+0.00on par
RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Čonoplja ↓

RFK Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sloga Čonoplja or draw
73%
Sloga Čonoplja or RFK Novi Sad
74%
Draw or RFK Novi Sad
53%

Winning margin

Sloga Čonoplja wins by 2+
24%
RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sloga Čonoplja 1+ goals
78%
Sloga Čonoplja 2+ goals
45%
Sloga Čonoplja 3+ goals
20%
RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals
67%
RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals
30%
RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sloga Čonoplja (draw refunded)
63%
RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Čonoplja at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 49 matches

RFK Novi Sad away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Čonoplja attack 1.14 + RFK Novi Sad defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.53

RFK Novi Sad attack 1.07 + Sloga Čonoplja defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sloga Čonoplja scores more
47%
level
26%
RFK Novi Sad scores more
27%

Sloga Čonoplja at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sloga Čonoplja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Sloga Čonoplja 1–1 RFK Novi Sad

Sloga Čonoplja and RFK Novi Sad drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion SC Čonoplja in Čonoplja.