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RFK Novi Sad vs Sloga Čonoplja — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

RFK Novi Sad
RFK Novi Sad
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Sloga Čonoplja
Sloga Čonoplja
3/29/2025Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 19Stadion na Detelinari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

RFK Novi Sad68%
×Draw18%
Sloga Čonoplja14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RFK Novi Sad
2.44
Sloga Čonoplja
1.02

RFK Novi Sad creates 139% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 49 away

creates per match

RFK Novi Sad
2.80
Sloga Čonoplja
1.04

allows per match

RFK Novi Sad
1.00
Sloga Čonoplja
2.08

finishing

RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par
Sloga Čonoplja+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RFK Novi Sad ↓

Sloga Čonoplja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

RFK Novi Sad or draw
86%
RFK Novi Sad or Sloga Čonoplja
82%
Draw or Sloga Čonoplja
32%

Winning margin

RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+
46%
Sloga Čonoplja wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals
91%
RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals
70%
RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals
43%
Sloga Čonoplja 1+ goals
64%
Sloga Čonoplja 2+ goals
27%
Sloga Čonoplja 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)
83%
Sloga Čonoplja (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RFK Novi Sad at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Sloga Čonoplja away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RFK Novi Sad attack 2.80 + Sloga Čonoplja defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.44

Sloga Čonoplja attack 1.04 + RFK Novi Sad defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

RFK Novi Sad scores more
68%
level
18%
Sloga Čonoplja scores more
14%

RFK Novi Sad at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "RFK Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RFK Novi Sad vs Sloga Čonoplja

RFK Novi Sad beat Sloga Čonoplja 3-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion na Detelinari in Novi Sad.