Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sloga Čonoplja vs Kozara — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Sloga Čonoplja
Sloga Čonoplja
FT
0 – 0
Kozara
Kozara
8/15/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 1Stadion SC Čonoplja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Sloga Čonoplja58%
×Draw23%
Kozara19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Čonoplja
1.82
Kozara
0.92

Sloga Čonoplja creates 98% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 28 away

creates per match

Sloga Čonoplja
1.14
Kozara
0.71

allows per match

Sloga Čonoplja
1.14
Kozara
2.50

finishing

Sloga Čonoplja+0.00on par
Kozara+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Čonoplja ↓

Kozara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sloga Čonoplja or draw
81%
Sloga Čonoplja or Kozara
77%
Draw or Kozara
42%

Winning margin

Sloga Čonoplja wins by 2+
34%
Kozara wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sloga Čonoplja 1+ goals
84%
Sloga Čonoplja 2+ goals
54%
Sloga Čonoplja 3+ goals
27%
Kozara 1+ goals
60%
Kozara 2+ goals
23%
Kozara 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sloga Čonoplja (draw refunded)
76%
Kozara (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Čonoplja at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 49 matches

Kozara away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.50 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Čonoplja attack 1.14 + Kozara defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.82

Kozara attack 0.71 + Sloga Čonoplja defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sloga Čonoplja scores more
58%
level
23%
Kozara scores more
19%

Sloga Čonoplja at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sloga Čonoplja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Sloga Čonoplja 0–0 Kozara

Sloga Čonoplja and Kozara drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion SC Čonoplja in Čonoplja.