Kozara 0–0 Sloga Čonoplja: Result & Stats

Kozara

FT

0 – 0

Sloga Čonoplja

3/6/2021

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 20Stadion FK Kozara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Kozara39%

×Draw23%

Sloga Čonoplja38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KozaraExpected goals in this matchSloga Čonoplja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.63

Kozara

1.65

Sloga Čonoplja

1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 49 away

1.22

creates per match

1.04

2.22

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Kozara

1.22

Sloga Čonoplja

1.04

allows per match

Kozara

2.22

Sloga Čonoplja

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kozara+0.00on par

Sloga Čonoplja+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozara ↓

Sloga Čonoplja →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Kozara or draw

62%

Kozara or Sloga Čonoplja

77%

Draw or Sloga Čonoplja

61%

Winning margin

Kozara wins by 2+

20%

Sloga Čonoplja wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Kozara 1+ goals

81%

Kozara 2+ goals

49%

Kozara 3+ goals

23%

Sloga Čonoplja 1+ goals

80%

Sloga Čonoplja 2+ goals

48%

Sloga Čonoplja 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Kozara (draw refunded)

51%

Sloga Čonoplja (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozara at home — creates 1.22, concedes 2.22 · 27 matches

Sloga Čonoplja away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozara attack 1.22 + Sloga Čonoplja defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.65

Sloga Čonoplja attack 1.04 + Kozara defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kozara scores more

39%

level

23%

Sloga Čonoplja scores more

38%

Kozara at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kozara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff