Sloga Čonoplja 1–4 FK Becej: Result & Stats

Sloga Čonoplja

FT

1 – 4

FK Becej

5/22/2021

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 36Stadion SC Čonoplja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Sloga Čonoplja53%

×Draw23%

FK Becej24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloga ČonopljaExpected goals in this matchFK Becej

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.15

Sloga Čonoplja

1.81

FK Becej

1.15

Sloga Čonoplja creates 57% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 88 away

1.14

creates per match

1.16

1.14

allows per match

2.49

creates per match

Sloga Čonoplja

1.14

FK Becej

1.16

allows per match

Sloga Čonoplja

1.14

FK Becej

2.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloga Čonoplja+0.00on par

FK Becej+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Čonoplja ↓

FK Becej →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sloga Čonoplja or draw

76%

Sloga Čonoplja or FK Becej

77%

Draw or FK Becej

47%

Winning margin

Sloga Čonoplja wins by 2+

29%

FK Becej wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sloga Čonoplja 1+ goals

84%

Sloga Čonoplja 2+ goals

54%

Sloga Čonoplja 3+ goals

27%

FK Becej 1+ goals

68%

FK Becej 2+ goals

32%

FK Becej 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sloga Čonoplja (draw refunded)

69%

FK Becej (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Čonoplja at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 49 matches

FK Becej away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.49 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Čonoplja attack 1.14 + FK Becej defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 1.81

FK Becej attack 1.16 + Sloga Čonoplja defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sloga Čonoplja scores more

53%

level

23%

FK Becej scores more

24%

Sloga Čonoplja at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sloga Čonoplja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff