FK Becej 0–2 Sloga Čonoplja: Result & Stats

FK Becej

FT

0 – 2

Sloga Čonoplja

11/14/2020

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 17Gradski stadion kraj Tise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

FK Becej51%

×Draw23%

Sloga Čonoplja26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK BecejExpected goals in this matchSloga Čonoplja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.30

FK Becej

1.89

Sloga Čonoplja

1.30

FK Becej creates 45% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 49 away

1.69

creates per match

1.04

1.56

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

FK Becej

1.69

Sloga Čonoplja

1.04

allows per match

FK Becej

1.56

Sloga Čonoplja

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Becej+0.00on par

Sloga Čonoplja+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Becej ↓

Sloga Čonoplja →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

FK Becej or draw

74%

FK Becej or Sloga Čonoplja

77%

Draw or Sloga Čonoplja

49%

Winning margin

FK Becej wins by 2+

29%

Sloga Čonoplja wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FK Becej 1+ goals

85%

FK Becej 2+ goals

56%

FK Becej 3+ goals

29%

Sloga Čonoplja 1+ goals

73%

Sloga Čonoplja 2+ goals

37%

Sloga Čonoplja 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

FK Becej (draw refunded)

66%

Sloga Čonoplja (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Becej at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

Sloga Čonoplja away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Becej attack 1.69 + Sloga Čonoplja defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.89

Sloga Čonoplja attack 1.04 + FK Becej defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FK Becej scores more

51%

level

23%

Sloga Čonoplja scores more

26%

FK Becej at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FK Becej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff