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Sloga Čonoplja vs Borac Sakule — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Sloga Čonoplja
Sloga Čonoplja
FT
0 – 2
Borac Sakule
Borac Sakule
4/24/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 30Stadion SC Čonoplja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Sloga Čonoplja39%
×Draw26%
Borac Sakule35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Čonoplja
1.37
Borac Sakule
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 42 away

creates per match

Sloga Čonoplja
1.14
Borac Sakule
1.40

allows per match

Sloga Čonoplja
1.14
Borac Sakule
1.60

finishing

Sloga Čonoplja+0.00on par
Borac Sakule+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Čonoplja ↓

Borac Sakule →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sloga Čonoplja or draw
65%
Sloga Čonoplja or Borac Sakule
74%
Draw or Borac Sakule
61%

Winning margin

Sloga Čonoplja wins by 2+
18%
Borac Sakule wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sloga Čonoplja 1+ goals
75%
Sloga Čonoplja 2+ goals
40%
Sloga Čonoplja 3+ goals
16%
Borac Sakule 1+ goals
72%
Borac Sakule 2+ goals
36%
Borac Sakule 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sloga Čonoplja (draw refunded)
53%
Borac Sakule (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Čonoplja at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 49 matches

Borac Sakule away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Čonoplja attack 1.14 + Borac Sakule defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.37

Borac Sakule attack 1.40 + Sloga Čonoplja defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sloga Čonoplja scores more
39%
level
26%
Borac Sakule scores more
35%

Sloga Čonoplja at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sloga Čonoplja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sloga Čonoplja vs Borac Sakule

Borac Sakule beat Sloga Čonoplja 2-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion SC Čonoplja in Čonoplja.