Borac Sakule 3–2 Sloga Čonoplja: Result & Stats

Borac Sakule

FT

3 – 2

Sloga Čonoplja

10/7/2020

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 11Stadion Sveti Nikola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Borac Sakule57%

×Draw22%

Sloga Čonoplja21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borac SakuleExpected goals in this matchSloga Čonoplja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.10

Borac Sakule

1.97

Sloga Čonoplja

1.10

Borac Sakule creates 79% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 49 away

1.86

creates per match

1.04

1.16

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Borac Sakule

1.86

Sloga Čonoplja

1.04

allows per match

Borac Sakule

1.16

Sloga Čonoplja

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borac Sakule+0.00on par

Sloga Čonoplja+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Sakule ↓

Sloga Čonoplja →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Borac Sakule or draw

79%

Borac Sakule or Sloga Čonoplja

78%

Draw or Sloga Čonoplja

43%

Winning margin

Borac Sakule wins by 2+

34%

Sloga Čonoplja wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Borac Sakule 1+ goals

86%

Borac Sakule 2+ goals

58%

Borac Sakule 3+ goals

31%

Sloga Čonoplja 1+ goals

67%

Sloga Čonoplja 2+ goals

30%

Sloga Čonoplja 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Borac Sakule (draw refunded)

73%

Sloga Čonoplja (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Sakule at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

Sloga Čonoplja away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Sakule attack 1.86 + Sloga Čonoplja defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.97

Sloga Čonoplja attack 1.04 + Borac Sakule defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Borac Sakule scores more

57%

level

22%

Sloga Čonoplja scores more

21%

Borac Sakule at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Borac Sakule will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff