Sloga Čonoplja 0–0 Bačka 1901: Result & Stats

Sloga Čonoplja

FT

0 – 0

Bačka 1901

3/31/2021

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 25Stadion SC Čonoplja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Sloga Čonoplja46%

×Draw25%

Bačka 190129%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloga ČonopljaExpected goals in this matchBačka 1901

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.20

Sloga Čonoplja

1.57

Bačka 1901

1.20

Sloga Čonoplja creates 31% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 27 away

1.14

creates per match

1.26

1.14

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Sloga Čonoplja

1.14

Bačka 1901

1.26

allows per match

Sloga Čonoplja

1.14

Bačka 1901

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloga Čonoplja+0.00on par

Bačka 1901+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Čonoplja ↓

Bačka 1901 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sloga Čonoplja or draw

71%

Sloga Čonoplja or Bačka 1901

75%

Draw or Bačka 1901

54%

Winning margin

Sloga Čonoplja wins by 2+

23%

Bačka 1901 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sloga Čonoplja 1+ goals

79%

Sloga Čonoplja 2+ goals

46%

Sloga Čonoplja 3+ goals

21%

Bačka 1901 1+ goals

70%

Bačka 1901 2+ goals

34%

Bačka 1901 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sloga Čonoplja (draw refunded)

61%

Bačka 1901 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Čonoplja at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 49 matches

Bačka 1901 away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.00 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Čonoplja attack 1.14 + Bačka 1901 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Bačka 1901 attack 1.26 + Sloga Čonoplja defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sloga Čonoplja scores more

46%

level

25%

Bačka 1901 scores more

29%

Sloga Čonoplja at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sloga Čonoplja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff