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Bačka 1901 vs Sloga Čonoplja — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Bačka 1901
Bačka 1901
FT
2 – 0
Sloga Čonoplja
Sloga Čonoplja
9/12/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 6Stadion Kraj Somborske Kapije

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Bačka 190154%
×Draw23%
Sloga Čonoplja24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bačka 1901
1.85
Sloga Čonoplja
1.15

Bačka 1901 creates 61% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 49 away

creates per match

Bačka 1901
1.61
Sloga Čonoplja
1.04

allows per match

Bačka 1901
1.25
Sloga Čonoplja
2.08

finishing

Bačka 1901+0.00on par
Sloga Čonoplja+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bačka 1901 ↓

Sloga Čonoplja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Bačka 1901 or draw
76%
Bačka 1901 or Sloga Čonoplja
77%
Draw or Sloga Čonoplja
46%

Winning margin

Bačka 1901 wins by 2+
30%
Sloga Čonoplja wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bačka 1901 1+ goals
84%
Bačka 1901 2+ goals
55%
Bačka 1901 3+ goals
28%
Sloga Čonoplja 1+ goals
68%
Sloga Čonoplja 2+ goals
32%
Sloga Čonoplja 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bačka 1901 (draw refunded)
69%
Sloga Čonoplja (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bačka 1901 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

Sloga Čonoplja away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bačka 1901 attack 1.61 + Sloga Čonoplja defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.85

Sloga Čonoplja attack 1.04 + Bačka 1901 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bačka 1901 scores more
54%
level
23%
Sloga Čonoplja scores more
24%

Bačka 1901 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bačka 1901 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Bačka 1901 2–0 Sloga Čonoplja

Bačka 1901 beat Sloga Čonoplja 2-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Kraj Somborske Kapije in Subotica.