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Sloga Bajina Bašta vs Mihajlovac — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Sloga Bajina Bašta
Sloga Bajina Bašta
FT
4 – 0
Mihajlovac
Mihajlovac
9/10/2022Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 5Stadion Bajina Bašta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sloga Bajina Bašta66%
×Draw22%
Mihajlovac12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Bajina Bašta
1.82
Mihajlovac
0.64

Sloga Bajina Bašta creates 184% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Sloga Bajina Bašta
1.67
Mihajlovac
0.60

allows per match

Sloga Bajina Bašta
0.67
Mihajlovac
1.97

finishing

Sloga Bajina Bašta+0.00on par
Mihajlovac+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Bajina Bašta ↓

Mihajlovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sloga Bajina Bašta or draw
88%
Sloga Bajina Bašta or Mihajlovac
78%
Draw or Mihajlovac
34%

Winning margin

Sloga Bajina Bašta wins by 2+
39%
Mihajlovac wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sloga Bajina Bašta 1+ goals
84%
Sloga Bajina Bašta 2+ goals
54%
Sloga Bajina Bašta 3+ goals
27%
Mihajlovac 1+ goals
47%
Mihajlovac 2+ goals
14%
Mihajlovac 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sloga Bajina Bašta (draw refunded)
84%
Mihajlovac (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Bajina Bašta at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 30 matches

Mihajlovac away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Bajina Bašta attack 1.67 + Mihajlovac defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.82

Mihajlovac attack 0.60 + Sloga Bajina Bašta defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Sloga Bajina Bašta scores more
66%
level
22%
Mihajlovac scores more
12%

Sloga Bajina Bašta at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Sloga Bajina Bašta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Sloga Bajina Bašta 4–0 Mihajlovac

Sloga Bajina Bašta beat Mihajlovac 4-0 in Srpska Liga - West on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Bajina Bašta in Bajina Bašta.