Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mihajlovac vs Sloga Bajina Bašta — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Mihajlovac
Mihajlovac
FT
1 – 0
Sloga Bajina Bašta
Sloga Bajina Bašta
4/9/2023Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 20Stadion FK Seljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mihajlovac42%
×Draw27%
Sloga Bajina Bašta32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mihajlovac
1.35
Sloga Bajina Bašta
1.14

Mihajlovac creates 18% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Mihajlovac
1.20
Sloga Bajina Bašta
0.67

allows per match

Mihajlovac
1.60
Sloga Bajina Bašta
1.50

finishing

Mihajlovac+0.00on par
Sloga Bajina Bašta+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mihajlovac ↓

Sloga Bajina Bašta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mihajlovac or draw
68%
Mihajlovac or Sloga Bajina Bašta
73%
Draw or Sloga Bajina Bašta
58%

Winning margin

Mihajlovac wins by 2+
19%
Sloga Bajina Bašta wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mihajlovac 1+ goals
74%
Mihajlovac 2+ goals
39%
Mihajlovac 3+ goals
15%
Sloga Bajina Bašta 1+ goals
68%
Sloga Bajina Bašta 2+ goals
32%
Sloga Bajina Bašta 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mihajlovac (draw refunded)
57%
Sloga Bajina Bašta (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mihajlovac at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

Sloga Bajina Bašta away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mihajlovac attack 1.20 + Sloga Bajina Bašta defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sloga Bajina Bašta attack 0.67 + Mihajlovac defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mihajlovac scores more
42%
level
27%
Sloga Bajina Bašta scores more
32%

Mihajlovac at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mihajlovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mihajlovac vs Sloga Bajina Bašta

Mihajlovac beat Sloga Bajina Bašta 1-0 in Srpska Liga - West on April 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Seljak in Mihajlovac.