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Sloboda Uzice vs Sindjelic Beograd — Prva Liga 2018

Sloboda Uzice
Sloboda Uzice
FT
2 – 1
Sindjelic Beograd
Sindjelic Beograd
12/1/2018Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 20Gradski Stadion (Užice)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sloboda Uzice50%
×Draw27%
Sindjelic Beograd23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloboda Uzice
1.42
Sindjelic Beograd
0.87

Sloboda Uzice creates 63% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 34 away

creates per match

Sloboda Uzice
1.04
Sindjelic Beograd
0.74

allows per match

Sloboda Uzice
1.00
Sindjelic Beograd
1.79

finishing

Sloboda Uzice+0.00on par
Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Uzice ↓

Sindjelic Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sloboda Uzice or draw
77%
Sloboda Uzice or Sindjelic Beograd
73%
Draw or Sindjelic Beograd
50%

Winning margin

Sloboda Uzice wins by 2+
25%
Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sloboda Uzice 1+ goals
76%
Sloboda Uzice 2+ goals
41%
Sloboda Uzice 3+ goals
17%
Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals
58%
Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals
22%
Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Uzice (draw refunded)
68%
Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Uzice at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.00 · 75 matches

Sindjelic Beograd away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Uzice attack 1.04 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.42

Sindjelic Beograd attack 0.74 + Sloboda Uzice defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sloboda Uzice scores more
50%
level
27%
Sindjelic Beograd scores more
23%

Sloboda Uzice at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sloboda Uzice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Sloboda Uzice 2–1 Sindjelic Beograd

Sloboda Uzice beat Sindjelic Beograd 2-1 in Prva Liga on December 1, 2018.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion (Užice).