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Sindjelic Beograd vs Sloboda Uzice — Prva Liga 2018

Sindjelic Beograd
Sindjelic Beograd
FT
3 – 2
Sloboda Uzice
Sloboda Uzice
9/2/2018Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 5Stadion FK Sinđelić (Beograd)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Sindjelic Beograd48%
×Draw28%
Sloboda Uzice24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sindjelic Beograd
1.35
Sloboda Uzice
0.87

Sindjelic Beograd creates 55% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 76 away

creates per match

Sindjelic Beograd
1.12
Sloboda Uzice
0.62

allows per match

Sindjelic Beograd
1.12
Sloboda Uzice
1.57

finishing

Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par
Sloboda Uzice+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sindjelic Beograd ↓

Sloboda Uzice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sindjelic Beograd or draw
76%
Sindjelic Beograd or Sloboda Uzice
72%
Draw or Sloboda Uzice
52%

Winning margin

Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+
23%
Sloboda Uzice wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals
74%
Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals
39%
Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals
15%
Sloboda Uzice 1+ goals
58%
Sloboda Uzice 2+ goals
22%
Sloboda Uzice 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)
66%
Sloboda Uzice (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sindjelic Beograd at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

Sloboda Uzice away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.57 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sindjelic Beograd attack 1.12 + Sloboda Uzice defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sloboda Uzice attack 0.62 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sindjelic Beograd scores more
48%
level
28%
Sloboda Uzice scores more
24%

Sindjelic Beograd at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sindjelic Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sindjelic Beograd vs Sloboda Uzice

Sindjelic Beograd beat Sloboda Uzice 3-2 in Prva Liga on September 2, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion FK Sinđelić (Beograd).